Iran-Israel Conflict Tensions and US Measures
Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear sites has elicited mixed responses, both from the domestic public and the international community. However, strategically, this move can be seen as a measured effort to restore clarity to a conflict that was beginning to escalate for two main reasons.
First, the attack served as a clear signal to clarify the objectives of each actor in the conflict. Israel’s initial attack on Iran on June 12, 2025, which appeared to be a preventive measure against Tehran’s nuclear program, was immediately retaliated against by Iran. Over twelve days, both sides launched missile attacks against each other, creating an escalation that prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to raise the idea of regime change in Iran. In an interview on June 16, 2025, Netanyahu openly stated that targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, could be the key to ending the conflict. He also emphasized that Israel was not only fighting for itself, but also the world, saying, “Today Tel Aviv, tomorrow New York.” His comments suggest that, at least from Israel’s perspective, the conflict has gone beyond its original goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Israel’s narrative contradicts Trump’s approach, which tends to prioritize diplomacy and avoid further military involvement. Trump is known to have rejected Israel’s request to expand operations, including the use of bunker buster weapons. He also refused to get involved in further conflicts in the Middle East, which was an important part of his political campaign. When Netanyahu acted without full coordination, Trump saw that the US could lose control over the dynamics of the conflict. Thus, the decision to launch a limited campaign using B-2 bombers was Trump’s way of emphasizing that America’s focus remained on nuclear arms limitation, not regime change.
Second, Trump’s attack created an opportunity to achieve a ceasefire by offering a narrative of victory for all parties. Operation Midnight Hammer, launched on June 21, 2025, targeted three major Iranian nuclear sites: the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, the Natanz facility, and the Isfahan nuclear complex. The operation involved seven B-2 stealth bombers and more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles, marking the first time the US has used the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb in combat. Interestingly, casualties from the attack were minimal, and it is indicated that Iran had conducted a covert evacuation. This has led to speculation that the attack did not have a significant impact on Iran.
Iran retaliated on June 23, 2025, by attacking the US air base at Al Udeid in Qatar. Interestingly, this attack did not cause any casualties or significant damage. President Trump later revealed that Iran had given early warning of the impending missile attack, allowing the US and Qatar to take measures to secure all personnel. This response seemed to indicate a calculated exchange of information to reduce tensions without appearing weak in the public eye.
Finally, on June 24, the three parties agreed to a ceasefire. For the US, the goal of denuclearization was achieved without getting caught up in a prolonged war. For Israel, this operation proved the success of its strategy to prevent the development of nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, for Iran, although the military impact was limited, its successful response to the US attack allowed it to maintain its image of national strength.
What Happened After the Iran-Israel Ceasefire?
Although the ceasefire succeeded in easing tensions in the short term, the direction of the Iran–Israel conflict remains uncertain. One likely scenario is that Iran will avoid direct escalation with the United States, especially after suffering damage to critical infrastructure, the deaths of several senior IRGC commanders, and the weakening of Hezbollah and Houthi forces. However, rather than retreating, Iran may revive and strengthen non-state actors in their strategy without being involved in any open conflicts.
On the other hand, the attack could also potentially accelerate Iran’s nuclear program to become a real guarantee for the regime’s survival. The IAEA statement that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months reinforces the assumption that nuclear capabilities remain a strategic option. However, if Iran approaches the nuclear threshold, the risk of further military intervention by the US and Israel becomes very likely.
Indonesia’s Response to the Iran-Israel Situation
Although a ceasefire has now been achieved, tensions between Iran and Israel remain unresolved. To date, Indonesia has responded through a diplomatic approach by issuing a statement calling on all parties, including Iran, Israel, and the US, to exercise restraint. The government has also prioritized the safety of Indonesian citizens by increasing the alert status and preparing evacuation measures in high-risk countries such as Iran and Jordan.
International relations experts suggest that Indonesia should actively participate in international forums related to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), particularly in advocating against selective enforcement in nuclear weapons governance. This step aligns with Indonesia’s commitment to global security and world order based on independence, lasting peace, and social justice.
Furthermore, the conflict between Iran and Israel has disrupted oil shipments, causing global supplies to decline and oil prices to surge. This is due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key point in global oil distribution. The price surge is ultimately passed on to consumers, forcing people to pay more for their energy needs. This can certainly reduce purchasing power and slow down the domestic economy.
At the same time, the surge in energy prices and global uncertainty have also increased the risk of a recession, which could weaken international trade and reduce global export demand, including Indonesia’s flagship products to the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. In response to global inflation, many central banks around the world have tended to raise interest rates as a control measure. However, this policy carries consequences, including increased investment costs and a slowdown in global economic activity.
On the other hand, rising geopolitical tensions are driving capital flows toward safer assets such as gold and the US dollar. This is adding pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, which is currently around Rp16,000 per US dollar, and could weaken further to Rp17,000 per US dollar. If this happens, the burden of energy subsidies will certainly increase significantly, potentially exceeding Rp200 trillion. The overall dynamics of the Iran-Israel conflict risk slowing Indonesia’s economic growth to around 4.6–4.8 percent. Therefore, the government needs to prepare a strong fiscal strategy and maintain exchange rate stability to mitigate the adverse effects of this global crisis.
Written by: Nazwa
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